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Abstract

After September-11, the United States has devised a new approach towards the Middle East. The "Bush Doctrine" envisions a broad transformation of the region's politics, seen as a requisite for long-term regional and global security and for winning the "War onTerror". Three possible energy security challenges are reviewed in this paper (the risk of supply disruption, the risk of oil supply concentration, the risk of a lack of investment in production capacities). For each risk, it is asked under what conditions could the new US Middle East policy contribute to mitigate it. The conclusion is that these conditions are serious enough to shift at least part of the burden of proof on those who claim that the Bush Doctrine is "all about oil".Pierre Noël, Research Fellow at Ifri, is Head of Energy Studies and collaborates on the Centre français sur les États-Unis (CFE). He will join the Electricity Policy Research Group (EPRG) at the Judge Business School, University of Cambridge (United Kingdom) in September 2006.