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Since the dawn of the 21st century, and particularly since September 11, 2001, which is widely considered to be a turning point, unrest in the Middle East has intensified and has been expanding eastward. From Lebanon to Pakistan, crisis fronts have grown in number. Only the Arabian Peninsula and Iran, surrounded by unrest, are places of stability - but for how long? Denis Bauchard is Senior Fellow at the Institut français des relations internationales.