The Other Side of Oil Dependence
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Policy makers in oil-importing countries express concern about political instability inexporting countries, and their willingness to invest for future exports. In fact, the petroleum exporting countries are more dependent on oil trade than the importing countries, and can be expected to invest to support this trade. They depend on growing foreign currency earnings and government revenue to sustain their economic growth and face difficult adjustments when, in the future, petroleum production ceases to grow. Failure to invest in the petroleum sector would accelerate their difficulties, but they also need to develop an export-oriented, tax generating growth outside petroleum.John V. Mitchell, Associate Fellow at the Royal Institute for International Affairs (Chatham House), has published The Changing Geopolitics of Energy (London, RIIA, 2003), The New Economy of Oil, (Londres, RIIA, 2001), and edited Companies in a World of Conflict (London, RIIA, 1998).