This article has been published for the fisrt time in the 1:2004 issue of Politique étrangère.Abstract

The latest developments in Russia –the crack down on independent medias, the attack on Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who built the most profitable and most transparent companies in Russia, and finally the results of the December 2003 Duma elections which brought about the disappearance from the Duma of liberal democratic parties– all demonstrate that post-communist Russia is settling in for a long, gray period of semi-authoritarian rule. This essay outlines the evolution of Vladimir Putin’s regime, his attitude toward Yeltsin’s legacy, his perception of his own mission and his strategic agenda for Russia. The author’s goal is to demonstrate that Putin’s regime within the Russian historical context is yet another version of personified, monolithic, traditional power. How is Putin going to reconcile his two opposite sides –that of economic reformer and pro-Western leader– and democratic backslider? How sustainable is his pro-Western choice? What does Russia have in store during Putin’s second presidency? These are the questions raised in this essay.

Lilia Shevtsova is a Senior Associate of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Program Director at Moscow Carnegie Center.