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Tomorrow's Battles: is the Future Predictable?

Articles from Politique Etrangère
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Classical war is probably dead because it is no longer a profitable tool to achieve political and economical goals. It relinquishes its place to dissymmetric conflicts that very quickly divert themselves into long asymmetric confrontations. Abroad, the stabilization phase has become the decisive phase. The place of war has changed : whereas in the past, it was conducted in three dimensions, in open spaces, in the middle of armies, it is now conducted on the ground, in close quarters, and in the middle of populations. The enemy adapts itself more quickly and armament is practically never used to produce the effect for which it was conceived. Today, more than ever, it is not the ability to plan and to decide that counts but the ability to react and to adapt.

Vincent Desportes, brigadier general, is at the head, for the Army, of the Centre de doctrine d’emploi des forces. He is also in charge of « Stratégies et doctrines » (éditions Economica) and has recently published Décider dans l’Incertitude (Paris, Economica, 2004).

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