Summary: On September 5th 2008, Angolans go to the polls in the first multiparty elections since 1992. These elections happen six years after the end of the civil war and constitute a decisive test for the country's future.

Sylvain Touati : What has happened since 2002 and the end of the war between the Angolan Government and UNITA[i] [ii]? Is there a new context which has led to these elections?

Indira Campos : Since the end of the war, Angola has achieved political and economic stability. UNITA officially gave up its armed wing and focused on the development of its political party. The main reason why elections took so long to happen is that the country was completely destroyed after more than three decades of civil war. One of the mistakes made in 1992[iii] was the failure to disarm the one hundred thousand or so men under arms before holding elections. The protagonists signed a Peace deal in 1991 , that set arbitrary and unrealistic deadlines for elections, and did not specify pre-conditions for holding elections. The conditions were simply not there in 1992: disarmament had not happened and infrastructure was completely destroyed and this was combined with the fact that there were no democratic traditions. So, this time the government felt they need more time to; one create stability and good conditions, two, to create an election roll. And also to assure good safety conditions to allow people to go to the poll. Obviously, it has been said that the MPLA[iv] might have been trying to delay the elections for different reasons (notably, manipulation in order to remain in power). But it should also be recognized that if elections had taken place in 2002, when UNITA had lost all its credibility, the MPLA would probably have won the elections. So these years have allowed UNITA to reorganize itself, to become a proper political party, to be able to compete and contest in the next elections. This period also allowed for the implementation of a new legal framework including new laws pertaining to electoral role, electoral conduct, press, nationality and political parties. Even as of last month[v], new electoral dispositions have came out. This period has also allowed the re-building infrastructures. In general, the population and political parties had agreed this time was needed. However, in the recent years, UNITA started to complain about the delays and wanted elections to take place. In fact, they wanted to have local elections to take place first and then legislative and presidential elections together.

ST : What is the political situation in Angola today? What is the role of Parliament in Angolan institutions? What is going to change with a new parliament?

IC : Well, the political landscape today is that MPLA benefits from a huge majority. Currently, 12 parties are represented in the Angolan Parliament but MPLA has got the majority of seats with 129 MP's, UNITA has 70, PRS[vi] 6 and few others parties have the remainder (220 in total). Although on paper, Angola is a multiparty democracy, with a separation of powers between the executive, the legislature, and the judiciary, most of the power is actually centered around the Presidency. The President has the exclusive right to dissolve Parliament but not vice-versa. The parliament is relatively weak in the sense that most initiatives for new legislation, and the state budget emanate from the presidency and the cabinet. And as MPLA has got a large majority at the Parliament, other parties find it difficult to impose their views. This prominence of the Presidency is obviously a result from the war that lasted from the early years of independence to 2002. The forthcoming elections can be an important step forward to change the structure of how things are run in the country, especially if MPLA is contested by smaller parties. MPLA is more likely to remain in power and retain its majority. But if smaller parties can manage to gain few more seats, then it can be contested in the decisions it takes. This would be a very positive aspect for political debates. Some smaller parties tend to have bigger ties with the civil society as well. So it could be a first step to pushing forward legal, structural, and attitudinal changes. Of course, it is a very small step. It is going to take time and it has to be a gradual process. But it is one step forward.

ST : What is the voting process?

IC : It is a poll based on a party-list proportional representation system; members serve 4-year terms with direct popular vote in multi-member constituencies. Basically, voters elect parties not candidates. There will be provincial constituencies with 5 seats for every one of the 18 provinces[vii] (90 seats in total). And the remainder, 130, will be taken proportionally from one national constituency[viii]. Initially, there was the thought to expand the assembly by three extra seats to represent Angolans abroad. But last year, government annulled this measure.

ST : Is MPLA, and the president Dos Santos' regime, under threat during these elections? Who are its main opponent?

IC : The constitutional tribunal received 34 applications from organizations intending to participate in the electoral process. At the end, only 14 political organizations provided all the requirements and are going to compete. 10 are proper parties and four are coalitions[ix]. Most analysts would say that MPLA is likely to retain its majority in Parliament. They are the largest and most organized party and have a broad base of supporters. One important aspect to note though is that during the 1992 elections, MPLA received a great part of its vote from the urban cities, mainly in Luanda. This time around, it is difficult to say which party is favored as there haven't been polls to evaluate the mood and discontent of the population. Luanda is very crowded (1/3 of the population), and is the electoral block that will make the difference in the polls. Much of the Luanda's population has been discontent because of the mass evictions that have taken place to allow new development infrastructures to be built. There is a high unemployment rate. It is likely that MPLA will do better in the rural areas where the government has made a lot of effort to build new schools and hospitals than in 1992. But in Luanda, I'm not really sure that is the same situation for MPLA. The MPLA's main opponent is UNITA. UNITA lost a lot of credibility after the end of the war in 2002. But they have been working a lot on their image and have since restructured themselves. Its leaders claim that it has become a fully democratic and transparent party. They have done two party congresses since 2002. But I am not sure to which degree the population is aware of all these changes and if they still associate UNITA with the war. UNITA has lately emphasized that their campaign will be peaceful. They want to convince voters of this point. One surprise in 1992 was how bad FNLA's[x] results were. Before the 1992 elections, they were the third biggest political party, whose ethnic power base, the Bakongo, is thought to represent some 10 to 15 per cent of the population. But they did quite poorly in 1992. Having gone through internal splits recently it is unlikely they will have much influence in the September poll.FPD[xi] could be a party that makes surprises everyone. Its members are highly educated individuals very active with an active political and civic participation. A small class of intellects and young people disillusioned by the MPLA governance over the years but that cannot imagine themselves turning UNITA and that perhaps would have stayed home otherwise are demonstrating an interest for the FPD. Apart from the MPLA and UNITA they are thought to be the only party to have developed a well-structured political platform.

ST : How has the electoral process been managed by the authorities so far? Can we expect a fair election?

IC : There are two different bodies in charge of the elections. One is the inter-ministerial commission for Elections in charge of organizing the polls. The other one is the National Electoral Commission (CNE[xii]) in charge of monitoring the process. Both of them are led by the government. On one hand, the inter-ministerial commission is led by the Ministry of Territorial Administration and the Ministry of Social Communication. Ministers of both ministries are MPLA. On the other hand, members of the CNE are nominated by the different forces present in the government and by institutions. So MPLA get three seats, UNITA get 2 and the third largest party PRS get 1. Two other members are nominated by the President, 1 by the Minister of Territorial Administration, 1 by the Ministry of Social Communication. The last is nominated by the Tribunal, but in this case it is actually a member of the board of the Supreme Court. So from the 11 members of the CNE, 10 are nominated by forces present in the government. Many observers recognize that the CNE has done a good job in staying impartial so far. But, the process is still directed by the ruling party. Both the National Electoral platform and the Parliamentary Forum of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC[xiii]) have condemned the division of responsibility between electoral bodies at both national and local levels as lacking transparency.It is difficult to say if we are going to face free and fair elections. It depends on how you define a fairelection. The current electoral framework had been put in place by negotiations between MPLA, other parties and civil society. There is going to be national and international observation (90 European Union observers are being deployed, The African Union will also send observers, others missions are going to be present). The political parties are also training people to be at the polling stations on the day. In that sense, vote rigging in itself could be avoided. All the parties and the civil society are involved in the process; it will be difficult to organize manipulation.But a fair election is another issue. There is somewhat of an unequal playing field for the political contest in Angola. The MPLA as the ruling party has a huge advantage compared to others in the funds they have, their access to the Media, in the access to infrastructures. Public Media (TV and Radio) have had been bombing populations with MPLA propaganda while other parties still get a limited access pre-campaign. In that sense, elections may not be so fair.

ST : Is 1992 still in the mind of the people in charge of organizing the elections?

IC : Yes, of course. Successful elections will also mean a lot for Angola. For the ruling party, it will bring legitimacy that they never achieved in 1992. It also shows to the population that things can be resolved in a political way without resorting to war and that the transitional period is over. Finally, it is a positive signal to those who lost faith in elections. In 1992, 90% of registered voters turned out to vote. And what did they get? War. So you can imagine the deception. At the same time, the Angolan population is quite young. Many are going to vote for the first time. There is still a lot of expectation in Angola today concerning the poll and we can expect a large participation. It also means a lot for regional stability. It can set up an example in the region. In this way, it can also be good for Angola's international reputation and investment. MPLA wants to prove a lot with this election.

ST : What are Angolan expectations? What do they expect from their leaders?

IC : Voters are very aware of the corruption issue and want to see this issue tackled. They also want to see the dividend from peace. They want a better life. Election is one way to claim these changes. You promised something, so now you need to deliver. And, I think this time whoever is elected will have to fulfill voters' will. The economy is booming and people want to see the boom trickle down into their everyday life. Sometimes, the population want to see visible things such as new roads. The Government is building a lot of infrastructures but there is a need for a proper development plan. I think this is what people are expecting now. It is still difficult to know how the different political parties are going to answer to people's expectation. The MPLA so far has been emphasizing the continuing reconstruction of infrastructures in order to ensure development. UNITA on the other hand, is putting emphasis on inequality, education and health. The official campaign is an interesting period that allows each party to expose their political agenda. As in 1992, the last days of campaign will probably the more important to swing the votes around, notably if parties can translate what the population wants.

[i] National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (União Nacional para a Independencia Total de Angola).

[ii] On April 4th 2002, Luanda's peace Agreement between the Government, led by MPLA, and UNITA ended four decades of violence including an independence war (1961-1975) led by Agostinho Neto's MPLA, Holden Roberto's FNLA and Jonas Savimbi's UNITA against Portuguese colonial power. Then, in 1975, Angola's civil war started. It had strong regional repercussions (Namibia independence) and was one of the cold war's influential struggle with massive intervention from regional (South Africa, Zaire) and international (USSR, USA, Cuba) powers and only ended with the Bicesse Accords on the May 31st 1991. The war resumed in 1992, when UNITA refused to accept the results of the first democratic and multiparty elections, without decisive foreign interventions. After several rounds of negotiation (1995, 1997), the conflict ended with the death of Jonas Savimbi and UNITA's military defeat. The movement laid down its arms.

[iii] If these elections are successful, it would be Angola's first full electoral process since independence in 1975. In 1992, Angolans turned up to vote for both Presidential and Parliamentarian elections. M. Dos Santos and his party, MPLA, won the first round in front of UNITA leaded by Jonas Savimbi. The second round never took place because UNITA refused to accept the results. This refusal led to a resumption of the civil war which lasted ten more years and ended in 2002. In 2004, President Dos Santos, at 65 years old, in charge since 1979, announced that elections would take place in 2006 but it was postponed to 2007 and then 2008. September elections were announced in March 2008. Meanwhile, electoral roll registrations had been started since November 2006. 8 millions Angolans are registered to vote.

[iv] Popular Liberation Movement of Angola (Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola)

[v] In May, a new law was voted in, creating a longer delay between the poll and the result publication. http://www.afriquecentrale.info/central.php?o=5&s=1&d=3&i=1563[vi] Social Renewal Party (Partido de Renovação Social)

[vii] 18 provinces : Bengo, Benguela, Bie, Cabinda, Cuando Cubango, Cuanza Norte, Cuanza Sul, Cunene, Huambo, Huila, Luanda, Lunda Norte, Lunda Sul, Malanje, Moxico, Namibe, Uige, Zaïre

[viii] It is the same system used in 1992, when the the last elections were held in Angola. Angolan Parliament is unicameral with 220 seats. The dates of the next Presidential elections are still changing and should be scheduled in 2009. The President is elected by direct popular vote for a 5-year term.

[ix]The ruling People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), the leading opposition parties National Union for Total Independence of Angola (UNITA), National Liberation Front of Angola (FNLA) and Social Renewal Party (PRS), as well as the Democratic Renewal Party (PRD), the Liberal Democratic Party (PLD), Angola's Youth, Party of the Alliance of Youth, Workers and Farmers of Angola (PAJOCA-PP), Democratic and Progress Support of Angola (PADEPA), the Democratic Party for Progress - Angolan National Alliance (PDP-ANA), the Front for Democracy (FpD) and four coalitions: AD-Coligação, New Democracy (ND), Political Electoral Platform and Angolan Fraternal Forum (Fofac).

[x] National Front for the Liberation of Angola (Frente Nacional de Libertação de Angola)

[xi] Front for Democracy (Frente para a Democracia)

[xii] Comissão Nacional Eleitoral

[xiii] Cf. http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?ReportID=71030