South Africa and the Arab Spring: opportunities to match diplomacy goals and strategies
This paper highlights how the Arab Spring magnified a two-dimensional gap in South Africa’s foreign policy. First that South Africa does not have a vision which reconciles demands for achieving the goals of protecting human rights, sovereignty, and multilateralism; second, that its strategies do not meet set goals. The paper then provides tentative explanations to this gap. It ends by elaborating what in the “African Awakening” and in the midst of the Arab Spring are opportunities for South Africa to overcome this gap.
What the Arab Spring is remains to be fully understood; yet, its main feature, is that it encompasses a wide range of social processes that resulted in revolts against ruling regimes. Many African societies have for over thirty years been engulfed by social protest and/or anti-regime revolts – processes coined the “African Awakening”. This Awakening shares the Arab Spring’s underlying causes: economic marginality, political exclusion, and feelings of dispossession. Africa, thus, is fertile for outbreaks of region-wide militarized violence.
Negative externalities from the Arab Spring, especially the movement of combatants and arms across porous borders, and a demonstration effect that popular revolts can bring down entrenched regimes are very likely to escalate African conflicts. There is a sense of urgency because security instabilities will have a dampening effect on the economic boom which Africa is witnessing: this boom holds the potential for far-reaching positive transformations towards sustained growth and inequality eradication. Africa does not have strong regional security architectures to deal with such externalities. Expectations are high that South Africa will act in such an environment. And Pretoria taking region-wide action is actually in its own interest to help it realize its foreign policy goals.
South Africa’s foreign policy goals have been rather stable since 1994: it sees itself as a regional leader that values safeguarding the sovereignty of African states and also sees the need to achieve regional stability and peace. South Africa seeks to safeguard the norm of sovereignty from infringement, especially by more powerful states. There is also a moral dimension related to respect for human rights and popular empowerment which is very dear to a South Africa proud of its struggle against Apartheid. Strategies to achieve such goals include coordination with African states and other allies, ensuring respect for human rights and through multilateralism and institution-building which guard state sovereignty.
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South Africa and the Arab Spring: opportunities to match diplomacy goals and strategies
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Founded in 2007, Ifri's Sub-Saharan Africa center produces an in-depth analysis of the African continent and its security, geopolitical, political and socio-economic dynamics (in particular the phenomenon of urbanization). The Center aims to be both, through various publications and conferences, a space for disseminating analyzes intended for the media and the public but also a decision-making tool for political and economic actors with regard to the continent.
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