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COP28: Daunting Stakes and Pivotal Decisions on the Table

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The UN climate conference in Dubai faces a moment of troubled geopolitical agenda lowering the focus on the climate emergency, but natural ecosystems will not wait for human decisions. A challenging test for the survival of diplomacy.

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COP28
COP28
Chinese Domestic Policy
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In a world of increased geopolitical fragmentation, wars, economic hardship, industrial and technological competition, for the international community focusing on climate change and the energy transition will not come as an easy task. Yet it is crucial and urgent for our collective survival. Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and the 2022 energy crisis, the issue of security, in all its forms, has grown to be central in international fora such as the G20 and to dominate domestic agendas. Energy security, but also food security, water and medicine security and defense are at the forefront of efforts, casting a shadow over the urgency of the climate crisis in the immediate term. At the same time, the acceleration of destructive weather phenomena at a current level of warming of 1.15°C above pre-industrial level has made it into the daily news headlines and raises concerns of whole areas becoming un-insurable and un-inhabitable, of decreasing agricultural yields, of accelerated environmental degradation and loss of biodiversity and, overall, of an open Pandora box unleashing all threats to human security and well-being. The world must come to the realization that for every bit of degree of global warming, the consequences will be increasingly dire and potentially even irreversible where tipping points are crossed. The 28th edition of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 28) is opening with the hard task of taking steps ahead on climate change and make a synthesis out of opposing views.

The Global Stocktacke: turning science into action

First stop on the agenda of the COP28 is the Global Stocktake, put in place by the Paris Agreement in 2015, which must reflect the progress made on holding the global temperature increase to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.  This is a moment of collective acknowledgement that the world is nowhere near to being on track to meet these objectives. Globally, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions should be reduced by -43% by 2030 and -60% by 2035, whereas in 2022 GHG emissions were still on an upward trend of +1.4% compared to 2021. Hence, this Summit must turn scientific knowledge into bold decisions on mitigation efforts. Among the initiatives on the table that could positively contribute there is the tripling of the share of renewable energies and doubling the energy efficiency by 2030, a focus on decarbonizing the power system, supporting the decarbonization of energy intensive industries, and stopping the addition of new coal power plants to the international energy system.

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Climate & Energy
Center for Energy & Climate
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Ifri's Energy and Climate Center carries out activities and research on the geopolitical and geoeconomic issues of energy transitions such as energy security, competitiveness, control of value chains, and acceptability. Specialized in the study of European energy/climate policies as well as energy markets in Europe and around the world, its work also focuses on the energy and climate strategies of major powers such as the United States, China or India. It offers recognized expertise, enriched by international collaborations and events, particularly in Paris and Brussels.

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Can carbon markets make a breakthrough at COP29?

Date de publication
30 October 2024
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Voluntary carbon markets (VCMs) have a strong potential, notably to help bridge the climate finance gap, especially for Africa.

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Taiwan's Energy Supply: The Achilles Heel of National Security

Date de publication
22 October 2024
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Making Taiwan a “dead island” through “a blockade” and “disruption of energy supplies” leading to an “economic collapse.” This is how Colonel Zhang Chi of the People’s Liberation Army and professor at the National Defense University in Beijing described the objective of the Chinese military exercises in May 2024, following the inauguration of Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te. Similar to the exercises that took place after Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei in August 2022, China designated exercise zones facing Taiwan’s main ports, effectively simulating a military embargo on Taiwan. These maneuvers illustrate Beijing’s growing pressure on the island, which it aims to conquer, and push Taiwan to question its resilience capacity.

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India’s Broken Power Economics : Addressing DISCOM Challenges

Date de publication
15 October 2024
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India’s electricity demand is rising at an impressive annual rate of 9%. From 2014 to 2023, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) surged from 1.95 trillion dollars ($) to $3.2 trillion (constant 2015 US$), and the nation is poised to maintain this upward trajectory, with projected growth rates exceeding 7% in 2024 and 2025.  Correspondingly, peak power demand has soared from 136 gigawatts (GW) in 2014 to 243 GW in 2024, positioning India as the world’s third-largest energy consumer. In the past decade, the country has increased its power generation capacity by a remarkable 190 GW, pushing its total installed capacity beyond 400 GW. 

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The Troubled Reorganization of Critical Raw Materials Value Chains: An Assessment of European De-risking Policies

Date de publication
30 September 2024
Accroche

With the demand for critical raw materials set to, at a minimum, double by 2030 in the context of the current energy transition policies, the concentration of critical raw materials (CRM) supplies and, even more, of refining capacities in a handful of countries has become one of the paramount issues in international, bilateral and national discussions. China’s dominant position and successive export controls on critical raw materials (lately, germanium, gallium, rare earths processing technology, graphite, antimony) point to a trend of weaponizing critical dependencies.

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Chinese Domestic Policy

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