France vs. Jihadism: The Republic in a New Age of Terror
This paper assesses the current state of the jihadist threat to France, as well as the French authorities’ security response. With the upcoming presidential election, 2017 will be a decisive year for the country. Terrorism will be at the heart of the campaign and ISIS will most likely try to strike again.
The current French Administration has certainly been very active in fighting terrorism. However, the threats originating from both outside and within the country remain extremely high. As ISIS is slowly dwindling in Iraq and Syria, the flow of returning jihadists will increase. This terrorist organization may be tempted to make up for its territorial loss by committing spectacular attacks in the West. France is also challenged internally. It must deal with unrelenting social and religious tensions, but also, more pragmatically, the fact that 80% of convicts of terrorism will be released over the next five years. This undoubtedly casts an ominous shadow over the future.
This paper was originally published in the following book: Abu Rumman, Mohammad Suliman et. al., Methods of Preventing and Combatting Terrorism in the MENA Region and in the West, Amman (Jordan), Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, 2016. It can be accessed at www.fes-jordan.org. An Arabic translation is also available: http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/amman/13088.pdf
Available in:
Regions and themes
Share
Download the full analysis
This page contains only a summary of our work. If you would like to have access to all the information from our research on the subject, you can download the full version in PDF format.
France vs. Jihadism: The Republic in a New Age of Terror
Related centers and programs
Discover our other research centers and programs
Security Studies Center
Heir to a tradition dating back to the founding of Ifri, the Security Studies Center provides public and private decision-makers as well as the general public with the keys to understanding power relations and contemporary modes of conflict as well as those to come. Through its positioning at the juncture of politics and operations, the credibility of its civil-military team and the wide distribution of its publications in French and English, the Center for Security Studies constitutes in the French landscape of think tanks a unique center of research and influence on the national and international defense debate.
Internal Security
The distinction between internal and external threats is often exaggerated, as the borders are so porous. Conflicts taking place thousands of kilometers from France can have tragic resonances on national territory. Radicalization, terrorism and even organized crime have an international dimension that cannot be ignored.
Find out more
Discover all our analyses
Return to the East: the Russian Threat and the French Pivot to Europe's Eastern Flank
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has flung Europe’s Eastern flank into a new phase of strategic confrontation. It has had a major effect on France’s position, which was previously somewhat timid, leading it to significantly reinforce its deterrence and defense posture in support of the collective defense of Europe, in the name of strategic solidarity and the protection of its security interests.
Military Stockpiles: A Life-Insurance Policy in a High-Intensity Conflict?
The war in Ukraine is a reminder of the place of attrition from high-intensity conflict in European armies that have been cut to the bone after three decades of budget cuts. All European forces have had to reduce their stocks to the bare minimum. As a result, support to Ukraine has meant a significant drain on their operational capabilities. A significant amount of decommissioned systems were also donated, due to the lack of depth in operational fleets.
France’s Place Within NATO: Toward a Strategic Aggiornamento?
With a rapidly deteriorating security environment, a chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, internal disputes exploding into public view, and questions being raised about the scope of its security responsibilities, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) seemed to be in dire straits at the time of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
Towards a European Nuclear Deterrent
While major European powers may have to contemplate nuclear deterrence without America, the national flexibility and European financial support required to make it feasible is currently difficult to imagine.