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The Gulf Countries' Energy Strategies: What's on the Menu for the Power Sector?

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The futuristic green city of Masdar in the United Arab Emirates or the latest announcements of Saudi Arabia which might now well become the new Eldorado for solar energy companies have a clear marketing varnish. But if they are showcases of green ambitions, they nonetheless reflect the situation the Gulf States face today driven by the development of heavy industry and petrochemicals but first and foremost by the rapid population growth (around 2% for Saudi Arabia and 3% for Kuwait; Qatar and the Emirates have higher population growth rate due to immigrants).

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Demand for power is rising as fast as buildings, even more so as most of the water consumed is desalinated. While their economies still largely depend on oil and gas revenues, burning increasing amounts of fuels domestically into power stations is not sustainable. These countries are facing an energy paradigm with serious implications. Faced with this challenge, the Gulf States are thinking of solutions. They are moving at different speeds towards the diversification of power generation sources and the restructuration of their power sector. Recent years have therefore evolved under the banner of reform and a strong institutional activity in most states.

This comparative study intends to evaluate the energy paradigm in the GCC, and the responses given by some of the monarchies. This paper is written in the middle of the reform process, and therefore does not claim to evaluate the results of these measures. Rather it looks at the speed at which these reforms are being undertaken, the tools used and advantages across the countries, and the type of reforms that are conducted. It focuses on three specific countries: Saudi Arabia, the UAE and reports on other states to a lesser extent. The final section assesses the impact of the economic crisis and the regional political turmoil on the reform process. This paper argues that while high oil prices provide a large tax base for states investments in new and alternative power generation, the fear of the contagion of political turmoil will slow the privatization process and hamper price reforms. Additionally, the global credit crunch could have a negative impact on power plants tenders.

 

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978-2-36567-061-6

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The Gulf Countries' Energy Strategies: What's on the Menu for the Power Sector?

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Author(s)
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Climate & Energy
Center for Energy & Climate
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Ifri's Energy and Climate Center carries out activities and research on the geopolitical and geoeconomic issues of energy transitions such as energy security, competitiveness, control of value chains, and acceptability. Specialized in the study of European energy/climate policies as well as energy markets in Europe and around the world, its work also focuses on the energy and climate strategies of major powers such as the United States, China or India. It offers recognized expertise, enriched by international collaborations and events, particularly in Paris and Brussels.

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Date de publication
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Date de publication
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Accroche

Making Taiwan a “dead island” through “a blockade” and “disruption of energy supplies” leading to an “economic collapse.” This is how Colonel Zhang Chi of the People’s Liberation Army and professor at the National Defense University in Beijing described the objective of the Chinese military exercises in May 2024, following the inauguration of Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te. Similar to the exercises that took place after Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei in August 2022, China designated exercise zones facing Taiwan’s main ports, effectively simulating a military embargo on Taiwan. These maneuvers illustrate Beijing’s growing pressure on the island, which it aims to conquer, and push Taiwan to question its resilience capacity.

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India’s Broken Power Economics : Addressing DISCOM Challenges

Date de publication
15 October 2024
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India’s electricity demand is rising at an impressive annual rate of 9%. From 2014 to 2023, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) surged from 1.95 trillion dollars ($) to $3.2 trillion (constant 2015 US$), and the nation is poised to maintain this upward trajectory, with projected growth rates exceeding 7% in 2024 and 2025.  Correspondingly, peak power demand has soared from 136 gigawatts (GW) in 2014 to 243 GW in 2024, positioning India as the world’s third-largest energy consumer. In the past decade, the country has increased its power generation capacity by a remarkable 190 GW, pushing its total installed capacity beyond 400 GW. 

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The Troubled Reorganization of Critical Raw Materials Value Chains: An Assessment of European De-risking Policies

Date de publication
30 September 2024
Accroche

With the demand for critical raw materials set to, at a minimum, double by 2030 in the context of the current energy transition policies, the concentration of critical raw materials (CRM) supplies and, even more, of refining capacities in a handful of countries has become one of the paramount issues in international, bilateral and national discussions. China’s dominant position and successive export controls on critical raw materials (lately, germanium, gallium, rare earths processing technology, graphite, antimony) point to a trend of weaponizing critical dependencies.

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The Gulf Countries' Energy Strategies: What's on the Menu for the Power Sector?