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Russia and Central and Eastern Europe: between Confrontation and Collusion

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Since the start of the Ukraine crisis in early 2014, the states of East Central Europe have become increasingly important targets of Russian economic, political and military pressure. Russia finds itself in the trajectory of geopolitical retreat on the Western “front”, and seeks to slow down this process by mobilizing every economic, political and military asset in East Central Europe, where various weak points in the European and Atlantic unity exist—and are typically overestimated by Moscow.

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Its policy of exploiting vulnerabilities has been remarkably flexible, relying on energy ties with some states (Bulgaria and Slovakia), corrupt political ties with others (the Czech Republic and Hungary) and military pressure on yet others (Romania and the Baltic trio). None of these means—reinforced by a furious propaganda campaign—has produced the desired results. There are signs, as yet inconclusive, that Russia is reducing the reliance on military force as the most reliable instrument of policy, and curtailing its provocative activities, which generally corresponds with the inescapable cuts in its defense spending.

Dr Pavel K. Baev is a Research Director and Professor at the Peace Research Institute (PRIO), Oslo. He is also a Senior Non-Resident Fellow at the Brookings Institution, Washington DC, and an Associate Research Fellow at Ifri, Paris.

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978-2-36567-591-8

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Russia and Central and Eastern Europe: between Confrontation and Collusion

Decoration
Author(s)
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Pavel BAEV

Pavel BAEV

Intitulé du poste

Associate Research Fellow, Russia/Eurasia Center, Ifri

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Russie, Eurasie, Carte
Russia/Eurasia Center
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Founded in 2005 within Ifri, the Russia/Eurasia Center conducts research and organizes debates on Russia, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the South Caucasus. Its goal is to understand and anticipate the evolution of this complex and rapidly changing geographical area in order to enrich public discourse in France and Europe and to assist in strategic, political, and economic decision-making.

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Moldova’s Foreign Policy after 2024 Presidential Elections: Staying on the EU Path, Moving Eastwards or Becoming Multi-vector?

Date de publication
17 October 2024
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The future of Moldova’s foreign agenda will undergo a stress test during the upcoming presidential elections on October 20, 2024.

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Russian Strategic Thinking and Culture Before and After February 24, 2022: Political-Strategic Aspects

Date de publication
26 September 2024
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Written by Dimitri Minic, the scientific article "Russian Strategic Thinking and Culture Before and After February 24, 2022: Political-Strategic Aspects" in Russia’s war against Ukraine: Complexity of Contemporary Clausewitzian War by the National Defence University Department of Warfare, Helsinki 2024.

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Russia and the New BRICS Countries: Potentials and Limitations of a Scientific and Technological Cooperation

Date de publication
23 September 2024
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At the fifteenth BRICS summit, held in Johannesburg, South Africa, from August 22 to 24, 2023, a resolution was adopted to extend an invitation to six new countries to join the organization: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). All of these countries except Argentina duly became members of BRICS in 2024, with the expanded group known as BRICS+. In addition to the political and economic advantages, it is assumed that the incorporation of these new countries could potentially facilitate their scientific and technological development.

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The South Caucasus: A New Strategic Space?

Date de publication
10 September 2024
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The states of the South Caucasus are trying to find their footing in an increasingly fragmented international landscape.

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Russia and Central and Eastern Europe: between Confrontation and Collusion