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Unconventional Gas: A Game Changer for Transport Too?

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Unconventional Gas: A Game Changer for Transport Too?
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A new technology trend, the development of natural gas vehicles, is emerging in the transport sector. 

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While not new this technology is now being simultaneously revived by the discovery of significant amounts of unconventional gas, by the rise of oil prices, and by the decreased confidence in the sustainability of nuclear technology (and subsequent rising electricity prices in Europe). Natural gas could provide a path to a lower carbon intensive transport sector in both developed and developing countries. Gas is cheaper and less polluting than oil. It emits significantly less local pollutants than diesel and less CO2 than gasoline. Historically present in Italy, South America, Iran and Pakistan natural gas vehicles are emerging in other countries: in some European countries, in the United States, in the Chinese provinces of Shaanxi and Henan, and in India. Asia and developing countries are expected to be responsible for a large share of the car market growth in the next years and consequently for a significant share of transport CO2 emissions. The adoption of a given technology there could impact global markets and global CO2 emissions significantly. While the trend is still loose, this paper responds to the possibility that this technology will expand: what would it imply? would it compete with the development of the electric vehicle? is it desirable?

It appears that the advantages of natural gas vehicles are not as clear cut as they seem. Environmentally, they are beneficial only to countries with little -if no- CO2 emissions standards. Several issues including the development of costly infrastructures are likely to raise costs. Natural gas vehicles development could also slow down the roll out of electric vehicles, hence delaying hopes of smoothing the integration of renewables into the power grid through the use of car batteries" storage capacity. But the main concern is the availability of cheap gas itself, on the basis of which this technology shift could take place. Markets for gas are tightening, price increases have already been announced in many places, and the development of unconventional resources is still surrounded by uncertainties in regards to its cost and timeframe. But even more, gas might be more efficiently used for power generation. The trend is however still nascent. The targeted markets are niche markets, and many bottlenecks including the determination of some governments to promote the electric vehicle instead, would have to be overcome before variants of natural gas transportation technologies can sustainably and significantly secure a large share of vehicle fleets.

 

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978-2-86592-899-6

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Unconventional Gas: A Game Changer for Transport Too?

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Author(s)
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Climate & Energy
Center for Energy & Climate
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Ifri's Energy and Climate Center carries out activities and research on the geopolitical and geoeconomic issues of energy transitions such as energy security, competitiveness, control of value chains, and acceptability. Specialized in the study of European energy/climate policies as well as energy markets in Europe and around the world, its work also focuses on the energy and climate strategies of major powers such as the United States, China or India. It offers recognized expertise, enriched by international collaborations and events, particularly in Paris and Brussels.

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Can carbon markets make a breakthrough at COP29?

Date de publication
30 October 2024
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Voluntary carbon markets (VCMs) have a strong potential, notably to help bridge the climate finance gap, especially for Africa.

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Taiwan's Energy Supply: The Achilles Heel of National Security

Date de publication
22 October 2024
Accroche

Making Taiwan a “dead island” through “a blockade” and “disruption of energy supplies” leading to an “economic collapse.” This is how Colonel Zhang Chi of the People’s Liberation Army and professor at the National Defense University in Beijing described the objective of the Chinese military exercises in May 2024, following the inauguration of Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te. Similar to the exercises that took place after Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei in August 2022, China designated exercise zones facing Taiwan’s main ports, effectively simulating a military embargo on Taiwan. These maneuvers illustrate Beijing’s growing pressure on the island, which it aims to conquer, and push Taiwan to question its resilience capacity.

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India’s Broken Power Economics : Addressing DISCOM Challenges

Date de publication
15 October 2024
Accroche

India’s electricity demand is rising at an impressive annual rate of 9%. From 2014 to 2023, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) surged from 1.95 trillion dollars ($) to $3.2 trillion (constant 2015 US$), and the nation is poised to maintain this upward trajectory, with projected growth rates exceeding 7% in 2024 and 2025.  Correspondingly, peak power demand has soared from 136 gigawatts (GW) in 2014 to 243 GW in 2024, positioning India as the world’s third-largest energy consumer. In the past decade, the country has increased its power generation capacity by a remarkable 190 GW, pushing its total installed capacity beyond 400 GW. 

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The Troubled Reorganization of Critical Raw Materials Value Chains: An Assessment of European De-risking Policies

Date de publication
30 September 2024
Accroche

With the demand for critical raw materials set to, at a minimum, double by 2030 in the context of the current energy transition policies, the concentration of critical raw materials (CRM) supplies and, even more, of refining capacities in a handful of countries has become one of the paramount issues in international, bilateral and national discussions. China’s dominant position and successive export controls on critical raw materials (lately, germanium, gallium, rare earths processing technology, graphite, antimony) point to a trend of weaponizing critical dependencies.

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Unconventional Gas: A Game Changer for Transport Too?