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What Now for Obama ?

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Potomac Papers
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What Now for Obama ?
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Larry J. Sabato, Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia, provides us with solid historical references and tools of analysis to understand midterms in general and those of 2010 in particular.

He points to the damaging effect of Tea Party candidacies on the Republican victory in the Senate, and on the impact of Republican gains on the 2011 redistricting process. But the bad economy seems to have been the key issue for 2010 voters - it may be key as well in the 2012 presidential election.

Corps analyses

By renewing the totality of U.S. House seats, a third of U.S. Senate seats and a number of Governors and state assembly seats, midterm elections have long been considered a referendum on the President, even though this particular vote obeys a number of other considerations. Midterms are generally bad for the party of the President, especially when they take place during the President’s second term. They do indeed introduce a risk of institutional paralysis, which some in the country of checks and balances may consider a good thing.

Larry J. Sabato, Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia, provides us with solid historical references and keys of analysis to understand midterms in general and those of 2010 in particular.

The most significant elements of the November 2010 election, Sabato tells us, are the damaging effect of Tea Party candidacies on the Republican victory in the Senate ; and the lasting consequences of Republican gains in state governorships and legislative chambers : in the wake of the 2010 census, they will be in charge of redistricting the states for national House and state legislative seats for the next decade.

The exit polls show how precise categories of the electorate have evolved since the presidential election of 2008. More than anything, they point to the major factor in the 2010 election –and most probably the 2012 presidential election–: the bad economy and its impact on voters’ attitudes.

 

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978-2-86592-815-6

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What Now for Obama ?

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Illustration Programme Amériques
Americas Program
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Ifri's work on the Americas region focuses mainly on the United States. Indeed, for more than 20 years, Ifri's Americas Program has provided keys to understanding American society and domestic policy while shedding light on developments in the country's foreign policy, including transatlantic relations and trade issues. 

 

Since 2023, a specific axis on Latin America structures more actively Ifri's research on this region.

 

Ifri's Canada program was active in 2015 and 2016.

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Kamala Harris's Economic Program

Date de publication
07 October 2024
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Since receiving the Democratic nomination in the wake of President Joe Biden’s decision to step aside in the 2024 American presidential race, Vice-President Kamala Harris has been striving to define her own policy platform to attract voters in the limited time remaining before the November 5th election. Since the economy is a central issue for American voters, Harris developed several propositions in that area.

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IRA: Towards Clean Hydrogen Leadership in the U.S.

Date de publication
15 June 2023
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Although late in adopting clean hydrogen (H2) and defining a national strategy–a draft was presented by the Department of Energy (DOE) in September 2022–, the United States (US) has strongly reinforced its support to clean hydrogen with the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in August 2022.

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Convince and Coerce: U.S. Interference in Technology Exchanges Between its Allies and China

Date de publication
22 February 2022
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The tough-on-China policy adopted by the Trump and Biden administrations has – and will increasingly have – important consequences for Washington’s allies, both on their infrastructure choices (5G, submarine cables...) and on their technological exchanges with China. 

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AUKUS Rocks the Boat in the Indo-Pacific, And It’s Not Good News

Date de publication
29 September 2021
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For anyone who still harbored doubts, Washington made crystal clear from the announcement of the new trilateral alliance with Australia and the UK (AUKUS) that countering China is its number one priority, and that it will do whatever it takes to succeed. Much has been said about the consequences of AUKUS on the French-US relations, but the strategic implications for the Indo-Pacific nations (including France), and for China especially, are also critical to consider.

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What Now for Obama ?

What Now for Obama ?