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Chad: from Deby to Deby. Recipes for a successful succession (2021-2024)

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As in Togo and Gabon, the transition that took place in Chad from 2021 to 
2024 resulted in a dynastic succession. Mahamat Idriss Deby succeeded his 
father, Idriss Deby Itno, who was President of Chad from 1996 to 2021. While 
the majority of Chadians were hoping for a change of government, the “Deby 
system” has managed to hold on.

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Illustration T.Vircoulon note Tchad
Abéché, Chad, mars 2024
Thierry VIRCOULON
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This study deciphers the strategy of this transition-succession, which 
consisted in :

  • believing in the possibility of change without alternation, by insisting on 
    the age of the new president and initiating new political orientations; 
  • consolidate the traditional pillars of power; 
  • forcibly intimidate the opposition and take advantage of its divisions;
  • institutionally confiscate the organization of the constitutional 
    referendum and elections, as well as the drafting of the founding texts of 
    the new Republic.


This strategy was all the more effective given that, in the geopolitical 
context of the new Cold War, there is no longer any international player (even 
at continental and regional level) capable of imposing itself as the arbiter or 
guarantor of political transitions. This new geopolitical situation has given 
the Chadian government almost total freedom to implement its succession 
plan and impose itself through elections with implausible results.
If the transition from 1993 to 1996 marked the transition from Hissene 
Habre’s regime to Idriss Deby’s, the transition of 2021-2024 marked the 
succession from Deby to Deby.

 

This study is only avalaible in French
 

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ISBN / ISSN

979-10-373-0914-3

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Chad: from Deby to Deby. Recipes for a successful succession (2021-2024)

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Author(s)
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Thierry VIRCOULON

Thierry VIRCOULON

Intitulé du poste

Associate Research Fellow, Coordinator of the Observatory of Central and Southern Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa Center, Ifri

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Subsaharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa Center
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Founded in 2007, Ifri's Sub-Saharan Africa center produces an in-depth analysis of the African continent and its security, geopolitical, political and socio-economic dynamics (in particular the phenomenon of urbanization). The Center aims to be both, through various publications and conferences, a space for disseminating analyzes intended for the media and the public but also a decision-making tool for political and economic actors with regard to the continent.

The center produces analyses for various organizations such as the Ministry of the Armed Forces, the Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the French Development Agency (AFD) and even for various private supports. Its researchers are regularly interviewed by parliamentary committees.

The organization of events of various formats complements the production of analyzes by bringing the different spheres of the public space (academic, political, media, economic and civil society) to meet and exchange analytical tools and visions of the continent. The Sub-Saharan Africa Center regularly welcomes political leaders from different sub-Saharan African countries.

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Rebooting Italy's Africa Policy: Making the Mattei Plan Work

Date de publication
25 November 2024
Accroche

Against the backdrop of increasing anti-French rhetoric across parts of Francophone Africa, the relative failure of the counterinsurgency operation in the central Sahel (Operation Barkhane) and diplomatic rifts with several Sahelian countries, Paris has been rethinking its relationship with the continent for several years now. As a former imperial power that has seen its colonial domain in Africa gain independence between 1956 (Morocco-Tunisia) and 1977 (Djibouti), France has invented two successive roles for itself in Africa since 1960, particularly in French-speaking sub-Saharan Africa.

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The dilemma of the Franco-African military relationship: reinvent or turn the page?

Date de publication
18 November 2024
Accroche

The origins of military presence and cooperation in Africa can be traced back to the tacit decolonization pact between the countries of French-speaking Africa. This cooperation led to the creation of African armies in the former colonies, as part of a project to prevent the spread of communism and maintain France's influence in the newly independent countries. 

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The Evolution of City Diplomacy in Africa: Impact, Potential, and Ongoing Challenges of African Cities’ International Activities.

Date de publication
15 November 2024
Accroche

Over the past decades, African cities have ranked among the leading players in the evolution of city diplomacy. Indeed, municipalities across the continent have gone beyond simply adapting to shifting trends in international cooperation. They have been shaping the current partnership approach that sees local authorities worldwide working together to pursue shared goals and address common urban challenges such as climate change, migration, and social justice.

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The High Authority for Peacebuilding (HACP) in Niger 2011-2023. Placing the State at the heart of conflict prevention and management.

Date de publication
06 November 2024
Accroche

Like other Sahelian countries, Niger has been affected by terrorism for almost two decades now. This issue has highlighted both the limits of these countries’ security systems and, more profoundly, their inability to offer stability to the populations of certain parts of the country. In a way, these “jihadized insurgencies” are a continuity of groups that regularly take up arms against central states.

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Abéché, Chad, mars 2024
Thierry VIRCOULON

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Chad: from Deby to Deby. Recipes for a successful succession (2021-2024)