Quel avenir pour le djihadisme ? Al-Qaïda et Daech après le califat
Despite a relative weakening since 2017, the international jihadist movement should continue to pose a genuine threat over the next decade.
The Islamic state’s territorial grasp in Iraq and Syria has now receded under the assault of its various opponents. With the loss of its sanctuary, ISIS’ ability to plan and carry out terrorist attacks in Western countries has greatly diminished. Yet, the group is far from being defeated. More generally, the jihadist movement remains very active in the Levant and throughout the world. Since the 9/11 attacks, it has shown not only its resilience but also its capacity to regenerate and innovate. This report, which has a prospective aim, analyses the global and local trends that will shape jihadism in the years to come. It presents a general picture of the status of forces in the different fronts where the armed forces are operating and reviews their operating procedures.
This content is available in French: Quel avenir pour le djihadisme ? Al-Qaïda et Daech après le califat.
Related centers and programs
Discover our other research centers and programsFind out more
Discover all our analysesReturn to the East: the Russian Threat and the French Pivot to Europe's Eastern Flank
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has flung Europe’s Eastern flank into a new phase of strategic confrontation. It has had a major effect on France’s position, which was previously somewhat timid, leading it to significantly reinforce its deterrence and defense posture in support of the collective defense of Europe, in the name of strategic solidarity and the protection of its security interests.
Military Stockpiles: A Life-Insurance Policy in a High-Intensity Conflict?
The war in Ukraine is a reminder of the place of attrition from high-intensity conflict in European armies that have been cut to the bone after three decades of budget cuts. All European forces have had to reduce their stocks to the bare minimum. As a result, support to Ukraine has meant a significant drain on their operational capabilities. A significant amount of decommissioned systems were also donated, due to the lack of depth in operational fleets.
France’s Place Within NATO: Toward a Strategic Aggiornamento?
With a rapidly deteriorating security environment, a chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, internal disputes exploding into public view, and questions being raised about the scope of its security responsibilities, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) seemed to be in dire straits at the time of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
Towards a European Nuclear Deterrent
While major European powers may have to contemplate nuclear deterrence without America, the national flexibility and European financial support required to make it feasible is currently difficult to imagine.