The World Through the Lens of Ukraine
This issue of Politique étrangère looks at three conflicts currently unfolding around the world.
Troubled Twins: The FCAS and MGCS Weapon Systems and Franco-German Co-operation
The FCAS (Future Combat Air System) and the MGCS (Main Ground Combat System) represent the latest chapter in a more than seven decades-long history of Franco-German defense co-operation.
European Union: A Geopolitical Illusion?
The European Union (EU) is holding firm in the face of the war in Ukraine—perhaps better than expected. But what long-term effects will the war have on European institutions and policies? The institutions will need to be changed to cope with the forthcoming expansions. The EU has certainly made progress toward common industrial and technological policies. But will this dynamic do away with a conception of strategic autonomy, encompassing both diplomacy and strategy? The European Union, which will undoubtedly be a key mover of future changes for the continent, remains largely uncertain in terms of its future configurations.
France’s Place Within NATO: Toward a Strategic Aggiornamento?
With a rapidly deteriorating security environment, a chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, internal disputes exploding into public view, and questions being raised about the scope of its security responsibilities, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) seemed to be in dire straits at the time of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
Türkiye’s Stifled Ambitions
As its elections have unfolded this spring, Türkiye has again shown itself to be symptomatic of the times. Across the world, numerous political regimes oscillate between democratic forms of government and an authoritarian concentration of power; impressive periods of growth give way to inflation and recession; and international deregulation gives rise to widespread diplomacy in an effort to juggle a myriad of shifting political loyalties. Faced with the war in Ukraine, Ankara is playing a strong hand by enlarging its areas of presence and intervention. Türkiye is more important to its partners than ever, independent of its eventual domestic trajectory.
Western discourse predicted the advent of Chinese dominance in the very short term, but events have taken a rather different turn. The drivers that enabled the unprecedented growth of recent decades seem to have run out of steam. Moreover, the outcome of Beijing’s economic strategies is still uncertain, in a context shaped primarily by U.S. policies. China’s influence in the future will be considerable, but the direction its rebound will take remains unclear.
For Europeans, the events in Ukraine and the thorny issue of the Sino-American rivalry cannot paper over the other security problems we face: On what common vision of our history and future will we build the Europe of tomorrow? Has drug trafficking already changed the nature of our societies? Can we afford to turn away from instances of destabilization in Africa, from the Horn to the Sahel?
The Russo-Ukrainian Conflict: An Opportunity for Türkiye
In response to the Ukrainian conflict, Ankara, which had previously developed a special relationship with both sides based on history and economic interests, adopted a balancing strategy of active neutrality.
Freedom, EU, NATO: Ukrainian Society Has Made its Choice
The Ukrainian resistance should be seen in its long-term context, starting with independence in 1991, and confirmed by the events of 2014.
Making Sense of Europe’s Southern Neighbourhood: Main Geopolitical and Security Parameters
Europe’s southern neighbourhood is a diverse but interlinked geopolitical ensemble, whose specificities need to be carefully assessed before Europeans devise dedicated security strategies, divide responsibilities and make policy decisions.
War and Democratic Decision Making: How do Democracies Argue and Decide Whether or Not to Intervene in Distant Wars?
What is the proper place and forum for decisions about war and peace in a democracy? There is surprisingly little consensus on this matter, not in theory and not in practice. While in Iraq, Libya and Syria, all Western actions have ended in failure, it seems necessary to analyze the place and importance of this aspect of the democratic decision making.
The Primacy of Alliance: Deterrence and European Security
Since the end of the Cold War, the international security environment has been transformed and nuclear weapons have been marginalized in the West. However, the NATO security policies remain almost unchanged: deterrence is still considered as a principle guiding the Atlantic Alliance, even though the actual policy statements lack target, direction and urgency.
Cruise Missiles and NATO Missile Defense: Under the Radar?
The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that the threat of cruise missile proliferation is as equally challenging to NATO as the threat of ballistic missiles. Over the last two decades, the emergence of cruise missiles and UAVs as a threat has been slow, and governments, particularly the United States, have invested much less in cruise missile defenses than in ballistic missile defenses.
Dancing with the Bear: Managing Escalation in a Conflict with Russia
"Escalation", the tendency of belligerents to increase the force or breadth of their attacks to gain advantage or avoid defeat, is not a new phenomenon. Systematic thought about how to manage it, however, did not crystallize until the Cold War and the invention of nuclear weapons.
France's Return into NATO: French Military Culture and Strategic Identity in Question
More than 40 years after the unilateral decision by General de Gaulle to withdraw French forces from NATO's integrated military command, President Sarkozy decided that France would reintegrate the Atlantic Alliance’s military structure, based on "full and complete participation". The decision was endorsed by Parliament and has generated little debate in France, while a majority of French people appear to approve of it.
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