The Future Middle East Strategic Balance. Conventional and Unconventional Sources of Instability
This paper seeks to analyze the future Middle Eastern military balance of power, in a time horizon of five to ten years.
The Challenges of Maintaining Nuclear Cultures : US and UK perspectives
After the world entered the nuclear age, civilian and military organizations have witnessed the slow emergence of nuclear cultures, defined as the set of values and knowledge, shared among the national security community, about the relative importance of nuclear weapons in the country’s defense posture, the distinctive features of nuclear weapons in terms of security, safety and operational requirements, and the workings of deterrence.
The Virtual Weapon: Dilemmas and Future Scenarios
Cyber technology challenges conventional mechanisms of deterrence and conflict management.
Cyberguerre : En quête d'une stratégie
Cyberspace, as a major but intricate field of action, represents both a challenge and a great strategic advantage. At a time when information technology affects all relationships at a global level, states are destabilized by growing dependence on computer data which puts their militaries at risk.
The Primacy of Alliance: Deterrence and European Security
Since the end of the Cold War, the international security environment has been transformed and nuclear weapons have been marginalized in the West. However, the NATO security policies remain almost unchanged: deterrence is still considered as a principle guiding the Atlantic Alliance, even though the actual policy statements lack target, direction and urgency.
Command and Control in a Nuclear-Armed Iran
In the long standoff regarding its nuclear ambition, Iran has cultivated ambiguity and been loath to reliably assure the international community of its ultimate intentions, complicating Western efforts to understand, let alone constrain, Tehran’s endeavors.
Ballistic Missile Defense in Japan: Deterrence and Military Transformation
In December 2003, Japan decided to be the second country in the Asia-Pacific to deploy a ballistic missile defense (BMD) system.
Deterring the Weak: Problems and Prospects
Strong states often fail to deter vastly weaker competitors. This paper explores some reasons of this failure and identifies factors that can increase the prospects that deterrence will succeed in these situations.
To Attack or Not to Attack: Israel Confronts a Dramatic Decision
In the heat of the public discussion on the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stressed that he has not yet decided whether to attack Iran. At the same time, partly in response to opponents of such an attack, he made it clear that the risk of harm to the home front at this point, when Iran still does not have nuclear weapons, is dwarfed by the risks involved in an attack on Israel after Iran has gone nuclear.
Proliferation and Nonproliferation in the Early Twenty-First Century: The Permanent Five Hold the Key to Success
Since the early twenty-first century, the international nonproliferation landscape has experienced a shift from relatively steady proliferation schemes to more complex and diverse challenges. New entities are gaining access to nuclear material and among them is a growing number of non-state actors. Some states continue to abuse international norms and rules overtly, while others opt for covert proliferation strategies.
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