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Many U.S. elites hope a transformed NATO will become the main political military institution in the 21st Century. There is no certainty that it will, however. Changes are in the air and a growing number of analysts in Washington feel that the future of the Alliance is in European hands. On the one hand, the pressures due to wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are encouraging many U.S. policymakers to view the ESDP as a potential future asset to NATO. As a result, the United States is likely to grow more open to the development of ESDP. On the other hand, if the Alliance fails in Afghanistan, defeat is likely to be blamed, fairly or not, on the timidity of European capitals. In this case, U.S. support for ESDP will falter, and the U.S. could lose interest in NATO taltogether.Christopher S. Chivvis, Former Transatlantic Fellow at RAND Corporation and Professorial Lecturer at School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, is Transatlantic Fellow (T.A.P.I.R.) at Ifri (Centre des études de sécurité).