Will the 21st century witness the triumph of peace and prosperity in Asia or is there a risk that the region will descend into chaos and war? Everything depends on the way in which three emergent factors, pertinent to regional stability, evolve: the first is the opening up to the market economy, which has yet to happen in Vietnam and North Korea, and whose continuation in China is leading to interdependence with other states in the region, the second is the process of modernisation of political institutions, initiated in China, and which, if continued, could also tip the balance in favour of peace. The third is the slow conversion, observed in the entire region, to the idea of regional economic co-operation based on formal agreement. Still, there is nothing to suggest that these three factors for peace will be powerful enough to overcome the risks of conflict, which weigh heavy upon Asia, such as the question of the Strait of Formosa and nuclear rivalry among India, Pakistan and China.

This content is published in French : Une paix asiatique est-elle possible sans architecture régionale ?