This article has been published for the first time in the 1:2007 issue of Politique étrangère.Abstract

Russia's foreign policy is powered by interests rather than ideals or ideologies. Big money and supreme power are closely intertwined. The Kremlin considers Russia's energy abundance to be its principal comparative advantage in the global competition. Within the former Soviet Union, it seeks preponderance rather than integration; with the European Union, Russia seeks a relationship of equals built on mutual interests; toward the United States, it asserts its independence and is prepared to work on a quid pro quo basis. In the longer term, the quality of the relations will depend on the depth and speed of Russia's modernization efforts. Russia's capitalism, rather than Russian democracy, is the thing to watch.Dmitri Trenin is a Senior Associate of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Director of Studies at its Moscow Center. His recent books include: Integration and Identity: Russia as a New West (Moscow, Evropa, 2006); Russland: die Gestrandete Weltmacht (Hamburg, Murmann, 2005) and The End of Eurasia: Russia between Geopolitics and Globalization (Washington, Carnegie, 2002).