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European Security and Defense Policy is at cross-roads. In spite of the accomplishments (external operations Artemis and Concordia) and institutional progress which have marked the last few years, it suffers certain congenital weaknesses (division about the Atlantic link, long tradition of autonomous foreign policies, etc.). Progress will be evaluated by future performance in the context of new threats which could appear on the international scene. From the prospective analysis of different factors which can/cannot influence the Union Common External and Defense Policy, three scenarios of possible evolution emerge: 'A big Switzerland' -a Union which limits itself to civil power-, 'The hard cores' -a pragmatic evolution of ESDP-, and last, 'the US disengagement' which induces an accelerated unification. Elvire Fabry is Director of Europanova. Member of the editorial staff of Futuribles, she has published Qui a peur de la citoyenneté européenne? La démocratie à l'heure de la Constitution (Paris, PUF, 2005).

Colomban Lebas is Associated Researcher at the Centre de Géostratégie of the ENS-Ulm. Specialized in the Transatlantic Relation, on Defense issues and European problematics, he has collaborated with the Fondation Robert Schuman and is Scientific Director of Europanova.