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Abstract

Whether Coalition Forces eventually discover extensive weapon of mass destruction (WMD) programs in Iraq, or only the limited activities uncovered to date, their findings are likely to have a significant impact on future thinking about proliferation. This article examines the specific impact of alternative outcomes of the on-going search on four issues: the credibility of future U.S. and U.K. intelligence assessments; the effectiveness of international inspections and export controls for dealing with uncooperative states; the utility of weapons of mass destruction for regional powers seeking to deter intervention by the United States and its allies; and the ability to secure adversary WMD programs during and after conflict. While the lessons to be drawn from the search for Saddam Hussein's WMD are, as yet, unclear, even now it appears that not all such lessons will be encouraging for those seeking to combat the further spread of WMD and advanced delivery systems.

Leonard S. Spector is Deputy Director of the Monterey Institute Center for Nonproliferation Studies and Editor-in-Chief of the Center's publications.