The consequences of the American intervention in Iraq are extremely paradoxical for Iran. On the one hand, the country that was described as being part of the 'Axes of Evil' by George W. Bush in January 2002 found itself completely encircled by U.S. forces now based in Afghanistan, the Persian Gulf, Georgia and Turkey. On the other hand, the United States deposed one of their worst enemies: Saddam Hussein. The situation is even more astounding when considering the opportunities available to Teheran in the aftermath of the overthrow of the Baathist regime in Iraq, opportunities that the Islamic regime is eager to exploit. In fact, when considering the strong relations between the Shia clergy of Iran and Iraq, Teheran is believed to play an important role in the post-Saddam Iraq. At the same time, Shiism will play a greater political role in Iraq than previously, however, paradoxically without being inspired by the Iranian model. The concern for pragmatism of the Iraqi politico-religious leaders and the tendency of major Shia centers in Iraq to adhere to a less political approach to religion may at one point create new problems for the Iranian theocracy.

Mohammad-Reza Djalili is a professor at the Graduate Institute of International Studies and at the Graduate Institute of Developement Studies in Geneva.

This content is published in French - L'après-Saddam : espérances et incertitudes iraniennes