Abstract

In spite of its lower level of competitivity compared with the Russian or Iranian proposals, the Baku-Ceyhan oil-pipeline project has finally been adopted, thanks to a strong backing from the United States. Washington has in reality been deeply involved in this in order to protect some clearly identified geopolitical interests: contain Russia, isolate Iran, and promote the role of Turkey in the region. It does however appear that this 'economic paradox' within American diplomacy may now resolve itself. Despite its strategic and financial uncertainties, the Turkish route is indeed favoured by a consortium of companies which endow it with economic sustainability, in particular with a view to exporting Kazak oil. From Aktau to Ceyhan, the Turkish route may thus find commercial viability and conciliate the economic and geopolitical interests of the United States in Central Asia and the Caucasus.

Annie Jafalian is a Research Fellow at the Fondation pour la recherche stratégique (FRS), Paris.