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Abstract

This paper intends to examine what are the consequences of the Iraqi war and the military occupation of Iraq by the 'coalition forces' on the oil markets at the end of the summer 2003. So far, continuity prevails over the premises of radical changes in the geopolitics of oil as announced in the 'war for oil' theory. Oil prices remain high, the return of Iraq as a major producer is delayed and will be very costly, the Iraqi resources are not reserved to American firms, OPEC is still influent and the special links between Saudi Arabia, and the United States are challenged but not cut. Russia is a great beneficiary of the present situation. We are far from the building of the foundations of a securized Middle East fully integrated in an open oil market free of political interference. The short term outlook for a radical change is more one of increased instability and menace to oil supply by uncontrolled forces.

Michel Chatelus is Professor of economic science at the Institut d'Etudes Politiques (IEP) of Grenoble (France) and an associate researcher within the Energy and Environment Policies Department of the LEPII (Grenoble).