With an annual growth of 10% in 2017 to 290 million tons (Mt) and 8.3% in the first half of 2018,​ Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) demand is rising faster than expected. Accounting for 44% of global demand growth in 2017, China is the main driver of the growth as the government has made natural gas a key policy choice to reduce air pollution and restructure its high-carbon energy mix. 

With the approach of the 2014 deadline for the completion of a truly European liberalized energy market, there is growing concern on the adequacy of the market structure with the changed economic and geopolitical environment. Market-based and short-term approaches have been fostered for both gas and electricity markets. Energy and climate policies have therefore a primary function in designing the basic rules for these markets to develop.

Last week Centrica announced having signed a three-year gas supply contract with Gazprom Marketing and Trading UK entirely priced against UK spot gas market (NBP). This move follows other announcements in the sector, such as EON long-term gas supply contracts renegotiation, which allowed it to almost double its net-profit forecasts for 2012, or BP intention to sell Shaz Deniz II gas with spot-indexed contracts. All major European suppliers have been able to renegotiate long-term oil-indexed contracts with Gazprom lately and, more generally, contracts are increasingly being based on some spot-indexed price formula. How could that happen and what does it mean?

This paper looks into natural gas pricing in the post-financial crisis market and, in particular, examines the question whether the oil-linked gas pricing system has outlived its utility as global gas markets mature and converge more rapidly than expected and as large new resources of unconventional gas shift the gas terms-of-trade.