Prénom de l'expert

Élie

Nom de l'expert

TENENBAUM

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has flung Europe’s Eastern flank into a new phase of strategic confrontation. It has had a major effect on France’s position, which was previously somewhat timid, leading it to significantly reinforce its deterrence and defense posture in support of the collective defense of Europe, in the name of strategic solidarity and the protection of its security interests.

The Ukrainian counter-offensive, which was supposed to result in a major breakthrough in 2023, came up against solid Russian defenses and ended in failure.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, marked a turning point in German defense policy. After thirty years of military downsizing, the Bundeswehr found itself at an extremely low capability level just as a high-intensity war involving a great power was breaking out on Europe’s doorstep for the first time since 1945. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s response was to embrace this “turning point” (Zeitenwende) by launching a major program to reequip Germany’s armed forces.

The new French Military Programming Law for 2024-2030 resolutely commits the French armed forces to the path of high intensity. However, this term continues to be the subject of debate and confusion within the defense community. 

As French President Emmanuel Macron (accompanied by Ursula von der Leyen) is on a state visit to China, some twenty Ifri researchers decipher the stakes of the U.S./China/Europe strategic triangle.

The Franco-British Summit on March 10th, 2023, will mark a much-needed reset in bilateral cooperation, following years of strained relations. With a recently re-elected French president and a new British Prime minister, both sides are committed to making this summit a success and re-launching a positive agenda for bilateral cooperation. The summit, the first since Sandhurst in 2018, will focus on three key topics: migration, energy, and foreign policy. Defense cooperation will also be addressed, as it remains the cornerstone of the bilateral relationship, though it may take a less prominent part than on previous occasions.

Our world is becoming increasingly contested and unpredictable and we are trending towards a return of great power strategic competition, characterized by more frequent challenges to the established rules-based international order. As a consequence, the risk of interstate conflict continues to rise. This regressive evolution is most readily apparent in the maritime domain, where the concomitant impacts on the free flow of international trade and the control of illegal and unregulated fishing are interlaced with the prescient, yet growing challenge of environmental security. 

La Guerre de vingt ans was awarded the Prize for the best book on geopolitics in 2021.

The coming of age of a digital “info sphere” has dramatically changed the nature of military information support strategy.