North Africa and Middle East
Analysis of changing dynamics in the North Africa/Middle East region, against a backdrop of increasing security crises and their political, economic and energy consequences.
Related Subjects
Strait of Hormuz: The War of Nerves
In the event of a major conflict, Iran could decide to close the Strait of Hormuz, which would cause a global energy crisis.
Is Escalation Between France and Turkey in the Middle East and Beyond Inescapable?
In recent years, France and Turkey have been on opposing sides relating to Middle East concerns.
RAMSES 2021. At the Edge?
RAMSES 2021. At the Edge?, written by Ifri's research team and external experts, offers an in-depth and up-to-date analysis of geopolitics in today’s world.
The Middle East: The Economy in The Race for Power
Middle Eastern geopolitics is currently undergoing structural changes: the regional order is in transition in the aftermath of the Arab Spring that undermined authoritarian governance, and triggered the competition for power against a backdrop of American withdrawal.
The Gulf: from Geopolitics to Plain Politics
The geopolitical shadow of the Gulf now extends far beyond the Middle East as a function the external dealings of Iran and the countries of the Arabian Peninsula.
The Gulf Economies and Energy Transition
The economies of the Persian Gulf are highly dependent on their petrol exports, particularly to Asia.
The Gulf: New Center of the Middle East?
Amid the shift in major powers, the Persian Gulf is asserting its position at the heart of the Middle East.
The Aborted Mobilisation of Jordan's Retired Servicemen
In the last decade, Jordan has been facing a resurgence in public discontent against harsh living conditions and the corruption of the regime.
RAMSES 2020. A World without a Compass?
RAMSES 2020. A World without a Compass?, written by Ifri's research team and external experts, offers an in-depth and up-to-date analysis of geopolitics in today’s world.
Emirates Airline, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways: Global Airline Companies Promoting the International Position and Reputation of Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Qatar
Airports in the Gulf emirates are major transit hubs in global airline networks today. Apart from their “advantageous” geographical location, their development results primarily from the ambitions of political actors seeking to maintain their power. This has led especially to the creation of the “Gulf companies”, namely Emirates Airline (Dubai), Etihad Airways (Abu Dhabi) and Qatar Airways (Doha). However, the three emirates are not following identical strategies. Within the unstable context of the Middle East, it is important to look at the development dynamics of these companies which symbolize the global reach of small but powerful political entities on the international stage.
Offshore Gas in East Mediterranean: From Myth to Reality
The wave of deep offshore and unconventional gas and oil exploration projects, rendered economically feasible by relatively high prices and new technologies, has reached the shores of the Mediterranean. Levantine countries, including Cyprus, Israel, Palestinian Territories, Lebanon, Syria, have new offshore gas potentials.
Command and Control in a Nuclear-Armed Iran
In the long standoff regarding its nuclear ambition, Iran has cultivated ambiguity and been loath to reliably assure the international community of its ultimate intentions, complicating Western efforts to understand, let alone constrain, Tehran’s endeavors.
Beyond the "Arab Spring": Russia's Security Interests in the Middle East
The reconfiguration of the regional system of international relations as a result of the Arab revolutions has engendered fresh challenges for Russia, related, amongst other things, to deteriorating relations with the USA and other Western powers.
Temporary Workers or Permanent Migrants? The Kafala System and Contestations over Residency in the Arab Gulf States
The Arab Gulf is the third largest receiving region for global migrants (after North America and the European Union). The six states of the Gulf Corporation Council (GCC) are the richest Arab economies, boast some of the highest GDP per capita rankings in the world, and they all depend upon guest workers in virtually every economic sector. Guest workers have played an integral role in the Gulf since the 1970s, supplying the skills and manpower needed to implement ambitious development plans.
Germany and the Arab Spring
Much of the analyses of German reactions to the Arab Spring uprisings have focused on Germany’s contentious decision relating to Libya. By siding with the critics of military intervention in abstaining from UNSC 1973, Germany vexed its allies and arguably displayed an astonishing lack of geostrategic foresight and moral rectitude.
The GCC States of the Persian Gulf and Asia Energy Relation
Since the 2000s, China and India's needs for hydrocarbons, coming on top of those of older industrialized Asian countries (Japan and South Korea), have considerably strengthened customer-supplier links between Asia in general and the Persian Gulf, in the energy field.
Powering Kuwait into the 21st Century: Adopting a Sustainable Strategy
Over the last ten years, Kuwait's power consumption has doubled. This rising need for electricity has been mainly driven by the fast population growth rate, the increasing need for desalinated water, accounting for 93% of water consumption, and the economic development of the country.
Al-Qaeda in a Changing Region
On Tuesday 10 April 2012, Osama bin Laden was finally replaced on the FBI’s most wanted list by a fugitive schoolteacher accused of possessing child pornography. As the United States’ perception of threat has shifted, so too has the broader national security discourse. The prominent al-Qaeda analyst Peter Bergen observed that the terrorist group which launched the 9/11 attacks is now more or less out of business. He argued, too, that it is time to declare al-Qaeda defeated and “move on to focus on the essential challenges now facing America”: fixing the country’s economy, containing a rising China, managing the rogue regime in North Korea, and continuing to delay Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons.
To Attack or Not to Attack: Israel Confronts a Dramatic Decision
In the heat of the public discussion on the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stressed that he has not yet decided whether to attack Iran. At the same time, partly in response to opponents of such an attack, he made it clear that the risk of harm to the home front at this point, when Iran still does not have nuclear weapons, is dwarfed by the risks involved in an attack on Israel after Iran has gone nuclear.
The Gulf Countries' Energy Strategies: What's on the Menu for the Power Sector?
The futuristic green city of Masdar in the United Arab Emirates or the latest announcements of Saudi Arabia which might now well become the new Eldorado for solar energy companies have a clear marketing varnish. But if they are showcases of green ambitions, they nonetheless reflect the situation the Gulf States face today driven by the development of heavy industry and petrochemicals but first and foremost by the rapid population growth (around 2% for Saudi Arabia and 3% for Kuwait; Qatar and the Emirates have higher population growth rate due to immigrants).
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