North Africa and Middle East
Analysis of changing dynamics in the North Africa/Middle East region, against a backdrop of increasing security crises and their political, economic and energy consequences.
Related Subjects
A Victory to End All Victory: Iraq after the Islamic State
The offensive on Mosul against Islamic State crystallises all of the political, social and security issues which determine the future of the Iraqi state.
Three Generations of Jihadism in Iraqi Kurdistan
The aim of this report is to describe and explain how structural changes have affected three generations of jihadists in Iraqi Kurdistan: The Jihadi generation of the 1980s, that of Ansar al-Islam in the 2000s and that of the Kurds of Islamic State (ISIS) or Daesh in the 2010s.
Foreign Policy Challenges for the Next French President
France’s current presidential campaign has created an unprecedented situation fuelled by revelations and a total absence of restraint, but it has not truly taken account of the disruptions of the last year: Brexit, the attempted coup in Turkey, the election of Donald Trump, the recapturing of Aleppo by Bashar al-Assad, Xi Jinping’s declarations about “economic globalization”, or the behavior of North Korea. The debate, or rather its absence, can be looked at in two ways.
Trade without Religion between Turkey and Syria
A saying claims that trade has no religion; it even adapts to a war situation, as demonstrated by the real-time reorganisation of trade channels at the Turkish-Syrian border.
The Future Middle East Strategic Balance. Conventional and Unconventional Sources of Instability
This paper seeks to analyze the future Middle Eastern military balance of power, in a time horizon of five to ten years.
RAMSES 2017. A Fragmented World
RAMSES 2017. A Fragmented World, prepared by IFRI’s research team and selected external experts, offers an in-depth and up to date analysis of global geopolitics.
This 35th edition focuses on three key issues: the spread of jihadist terrorism, the Middle East’s disintegration, and doubts about the European project. With the world’s balance of power and economic foundations shifting, the next few months are likely to be decisive for our future. The growing diversity and complexity of our world is startling, which is why it is important to rethink our analyses and means of action.
War and Democratic Decision Making: How do Democracies Argue and Decide Whether or Not to Intervene in Distant Wars?
What is the proper place and forum for decisions about war and peace in a democracy? There is surprisingly little consensus on this matter, not in theory and not in practice. While in Iraq, Libya and Syria, all Western actions have ended in failure, it seems necessary to analyze the place and importance of this aspect of the democratic decision making.
Middle East, the new "Great Game"
Will a divided Middle East become the center of a new “Great Game”? The world’s global powers are aligned in it: the United States, falsely tempted by retraction; Russia, establishing its position in an unexpected state of play, France, destabilized by the contradictions of its own policy… In addition are tussles for regional hegemony between Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia.
Russia in the Middle East: Back to a “Grand Strategy” – or Enforcing Multilateralism?
Russian military intervention in Syria was not an attempt to exert dominance as a hegemonic power in the Middle East.
Kurds against IS: An Effective Military Solution?
The Kurdish military’s recent history immediately brings to mind images of its mythical female fighters, and of its real victories against Daesh. But its successes have been primarily in Syria. In Iraq, the Kurdish military has been hindered by poor preparation, lack of effective weaponry, and various political and tactical disagreements between actors. Without support from the West, Kurdish forces will not be able to win the on-ground offensive.
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